The Legacies

I sit here watching the American Experience documentary on President Truman and the Cold War. I admit I am struck by the similarities to President Bush's struggle agains Islamo-Fascism (or whatever the term of the day may be now). Both ideological fights center on a simple us versus them mentality; a public that must be scared into backing action; a roll back of civil liberties; an expansion of domestic spying; a humble (some might say unpresidential) leader---yet one with a great respect for the Office of the President; a hostile Congress controlled by the opposing party; and a history making decision.

Truman narrowly won a second term (remember the "Dewey Beats Truman" headline) and ended his presidency with dismal public approval numbers. Despite this, the common man from Missouri is now seen by most historians as a top tier President. Many insider loyalists in D.C. now hope that George Bush will emerge as a Trumanesque figure and be redeemed by future historians. The Truman documentary reminds me that there is, indeed, much yet to be written about Bush.

The political legacy of W will be set in stone much sooner, however. Reminiscing with an old friend from Texas yesterday, the following summary occurred to me: George W. Bush's political legacy will likely be the establishment of Republican dominance in Texas, and the destruction of the same in the United States. 2008 will be a test of both theories.

George Bush beat a popular liberal governor in Ann Richards and set about transforming a state controlled by the Democratic Party from top to bottom. His leadership eventually brought the Texas Legislature, the judiciary, the congressional delegation, and all of the statewide executive offices under Republican control. The Tom DeLay led re-districting then set many of those partisan gains in concrete. Yet, today Democrats are starting to show some signs of life after controversial leaders like Speaker Craddick have failed to turn political power into major conservative reforms, and they hope to establish a beachhead in '08.

In Washington, the Republican take-over started in 1994 with the Gingrich Revolution and seemed to be reaching a crescendo when Bush beat Al Gore in 2000. Big-Government Conservatism and Iraq have now set the stage for what some Republican leaders fear will be a massive November collapse. Should John McCain avoid total disaster it will be in spite of, rather than because of, the Bush political legacy. That is the working theory anyway, but we can be sure that the judgment of the people will come a lot sooner than the judgment of history.